A HAMPSHIRE expert has led an inquiry looking into why opinion polls during last year's General Election campaign proved so inaccurate.
Patrick Sturgis, Professor of Research Methodology at the University of Southampton, chaired the independent Polling Inquiry set up last May by the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society.
It has made a series of 12 recommendations and suggested a new method for measuring voter opinion.
The inquiry tried to establish the extent of inaccuracies in the polls, the reasons for inaccuracies and whether the polls were properly understood by the public.
It found that poll samples were unrepresentative and methods used resulted in systematic over-representation of Labour voters and under-representation of Conservative ones, which was not mitigated by the systems in place.
Recommendations include making sure those who have voted by post are not asked the how they are likely to vote question, making samples more representative and reviewing methods on turnout probability.
The report suggests a different type of survey using random probability for the 2020 General Election, to be funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.
Prof Sturgis said: “Opinion polls are subject to many different sources of error and no set of procedures will ever guarantee total accuracy.
"But how polls are conducted and reported in the UK can and should be improved.”
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