POLITICS in Winchester stands at a crucial fork in the road. One way points to an era of Conservative domination, the other to stalemate.

The election on May 1 will determine the political landscape for years to come.

Currently the Tories have 29 councillors, the Lib Dems 23, Independents four and Labour one. But this poll is the last city council election until 2010 as it's the county that is contested in 2009.

The Conservatives have run the council since 2006 and last year weathered a potential storm when they successfully defended nine of ten seats.

Next Thursday the Tories are only defending six of the seats up for grabs whilst their main rivals, the Liberal Democrats, hold 11. The Independents are defending two.

Last year the Lib Dems stopped their recent decline and won three seats, although two were from an ailing Labour. This election is a big opportunity for them to snatch crucial seats. Take the chance and Winchester could return to no overall control'. Fail, and the Conservatives are entrenched for years to come.

Both main parties say it is extremely tight in wards across the district with St Barnabas in Winchester and Whiteley, both Tory-held but vulnerable on swings of less than three per cent.

Council leader George Beckett is at the sharp end of the fight as he is contesting Compton and Otterbourne ward, where the Lib Dems are fighting hard to unseat him. But he has never been defeated at a city council election.

Mr Beckett is confident that electors will recognise the work of the Tory administration: "Our record has been excellent. We have improved services and kept council tax rises below inflation."

He cited the fact that the Tory council has built a record number - 158 - affordable houses in the district between April 2007 and March 2008.

Therese Evans, the Lib Dem leader who is up for re-election in Wickham, acknowledged May 1 is a big day for the local party. "It is a good chance and we are fighting hard and are well organised. It is very tight, some of it is too close to predict but we are confident and I think we have the Tories worried."

Mrs Evans said the Tories' new policy of selling up to ten council houses a year in the countryside was concerning electors in rural areas.

An interesting contest will be Labour's Patrick Davies' attempt to get back onto the council he served for 30 years.

In 2006 the group leader was swept away in the unpopularity of Labour over the Iraq War. But such is the three-way split in the St Luke ward that largely comprises the Stanmore estate, that a strong showing by him may let the Tories through.

Mr Davies said he had been heartened by the response of local people.

"People know the work I have done. The feedback I get is that people on the doorstep say yes, you did a good job, we will give you another chance','' he said.

Adding interest is the emergence of the Greens and the persistence of the UK Independence Party.

The Greens, who launched a Winchester branch in March, are contesting a record four seats.

Jo Woodman, standing in St Batholomew ward, said new Green councillors would tackle council weaknesses from the inside.

She said: "Despite all the green' promises from the council, Winchester came bottom in a national WWF survey, found to have the worst ecological footprint per household of any city in the UK."

UKIP is putting up seven candidates, a move that will give cheer to the Liberal Democrats. Conservatives get irate with UKIP for standing in local elections, because it is seen as being to the detriment of the Tories.