Harry Redknapp believes 36 points will be enough to keep Saints up.
Saints go into today's St Mary's clash with Tottenham third from bottom with 21 points from 28 matches.
So if boss Redknapp's calculations prove correct, they need five wins from their remaining ten matches to secure Premiership survival.
Redknapp is also keen to make ground on fourth from bottom Crystal Palace, who are four points clear of Saints going into today, before the two teams meet at Selhurst Park in the penultimate game of the season on May 7.
And there would seem no better opportunity than now with Palace's next two matches against Manchester United and Chelsea and Saints' against Spurs and at Middlesbrough.
He said: "There's going to be scrap at the bottom and there are four teams in it - I wish I could see six or seven but I can't.
"Palace are favourites at the moment out of the four because they have got four points extra, but I still believe we can do it.
"It's difficult to see other teams coming into it. It will be a low total this year - 36 points will keep you up.
"We've gone through it all, but how do you know? All you can do is look after yourself, you have got to get results.
"We are playing well. Out of the last eight we only deserved to get beat against Birmingham. Every other game we could have won."
Redknapp: "I wouldn't want to still be three or four points behind when we go to Palace.
"There's a long way to go yet and anything can happen.
"I was in this position last year with Portsmouth and we went on a run and picked up 20 points or something, you just can't tell."
He added: "I've been in this situation a few times before. At West Ham we were dead and buried. I signed Hartson and Kitson and we went on an unbelievable run and pulled ourselves out.
"So ten games is a lot of games; maybe someone else could get drawn in, but I doubt it."
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