Welcome to Hampshire 2038?

IT could be paradise. Sun-kissed beaches, basking in weather similar to southern Spain. Or, it could be a nightmare.

Droughts, floods and tropical diseases.

Whatever the truth, global climate change will alter the face of Hampshire forever.

Today experts arrive in the county to issue policy makers in Hampshire with a "wake-up call" on the way this region might look in the year 2038 and beyond.

They have produced a "newspaper" edition from 2038 outlining some of the changes which residents in Hampshire can expect to see over the next 34 years.

But it's not all bad news. Hampshire residents can expect to bask in summer temperatures of around 30 degrees, turning the the area into a mecca for sun worshippers.

Hampshire County Council leader, Ken Thornber, warned that the climate change could increase the threat of diseases such as malaria appearing in the region.

He urged businesses and the local community to work together to mitigate the effects of climate change.

He said: "People can reduce greenhouse gas emission in simple ways such as not using their cars for short journeys where they could walk or cycle; turning off lights in rooms they're not in, and using a washing line instead of a tumble dryer.

"People will need to adapt to the inevitable changes that will occur.

"In future, people will need to consider things such as the location of their home - is it on a flood plain, for example? - and awareness of new health concerns such as heat stroke and malaria."

Today, environment bosses from Hampshire County Council will be given a stark picture of the effects of global warming and how it will change not only the climate but the types of crops that farmers will have to grow in future.

Other topics covered during the seminar will be the effects of "extreme" weather events in the county such as flooding and high-speed winds during the winter and predicted hotter and drier summers.

Coastal erosion and the changes to the county's wildlife will also be debated during the event.

Experts across the world now generally agree that the global warming over the last century has been caused by the increased burning of fossil fuels which have released millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the earth's atmosphere.

There is hard evidence that so called greenhouse gasses are creating an "envelope" surrounding the planet - trapping the sun's heat inside the atmosphere and leading to an inexorable rise in temperature.

Figures produced by the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research indicate the global mean temperature during 1998 was more than half a degree above the average temperature for the period between 1961 and 1990.

Its report, entitled Rising to the Challenge - Impacts of Climate Change in the South East in the 21sat Century, claims that by the 2080s, our grandchildren and great grandchildren will be living in a county very different from the one we know.

It will be warmer all year round, with most of the warming taking place in the summer and the autumn.

Winters will be wetter and summers drier. Summers will also be sunnier, with a reduction in average cloud cover, which will cause a large increase in the evaporation of ground water. However, winters will be wetter and windier with a much higher risk of storms.

Hampshire, along with the rest of the south, has already experienced more extreme weather events over the last few years.

There have been floods, high speed winds and storms - notably 1987's Great Storm which brought down thousands of trees across the south.

Experts believe that these extreme weather events are likely to become much more frequent.

There will also be a huge rise in sea levels by the year 2080, with some experts predicting a rise of about 54cm. Coastal features like the Hurst Castle Spit in the Solent could be lost as coastal erosion takes hold.

Other areas of the coastline will be threatened by rising sea levels.

Dr Robin McInnes from the Isle of Wight's Coastal Erosion Centre in Ventnor said that issues of sea level rise and winter rainfall were extremely important for both the Solent area and the Isle of Wight.

He said: "The amount of winter rainfall is absolutely critical. We are getting quite a few of these problems already. We could be seeing anything between 20 and 30 per cent more winter rainfall by 2080."

Turning to the Hurst Castle spit, he said it was important to protect the feature as it provided protection itself for the rest of the Solent area.

He said: "It is very important to protect it as a form of coastal protection."

At the moment, the worst effects of coastal erosion are reduced by the shingle banks so common along large sections of Hampshire's coastline.

It is not only the more visible signs of erosion that residents in Hampshire will have to face. As temperatures and the amount of water in the soil changes, so the balance of flora and fauna will alter

For the lowland grasslands of the south downs, there could be some benefits as well as losses. Some orchid species and butterflies such as the Adonis Blue may flourish and become more widespread. The New Forest will also change, with rare reptiles such as the sand lizard and smooth snake preferring the warmer conditions.

But other animals and plants such as the mole cricket and marsh gentian, which are suited to wetter heaths, may suffer as their habitat dries out in the summer.

Farmers may also have to adapt to a drier climate by producing crops which will rely less on scarce rainfall during the summer such as wine growing. There will also be opportunities to grow soya beans on a much larger scale than possible in southern Hampshire.

The County Council's executive member for the environment Councillor Keith Estlin said: "In order to respond to climate change, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and plan for their impacts. We can expect significant increases in storms, heat waves and droughts. Sea levels will rise, causing major coastal flooding, and the types of plants and animals that inhabit regions will change, affecting agriculture and food supplies.

"Taking positive action both in terms of adapting to the changes already under way and taking steps to prevent further damage is a key target for us."

MAIN ISSUES T THE WINCHESTER SEMINAR:

FLOODS AND COASTAL DEFENCES

Floods and coastal defences:

Increased frequency of overtopping of coastal defences. River flooding increasing during winter months. A strong presumption against development in flood risk areas.

WATER SUPPY:

Greatest challenge to meet demand during peak times when resources are depleted.

Potential reduction of summer flows.

AGRICULTURE:

Increased temperatures in all seasons leading to longer growing season. Potential to grow new crops. Increased risk of summer drought.

FORESTRY:

Increased tree stress and loss through drought.

ECOLOGY:

Combined effects of sea level rise and coastal erosion resulting in loss of habitats and characteristic species.

Increased frequency of "extreme" events such as floods and high-speed winds.

CULTURAL, HERITAGE, LEISURE ANDTOURISM:

Change to the coastline, "squeeze" of marginal ecosystems, change in plant types.

Increased opportunities for water-based leisure activities.

INSURANCE INDUSTRY:

Subsidence is an issue - as well as the damage caused by storms.

ECONOMIC SECTORS:

A rise in sea level is a concern where economic activity is based in coastal areas. Secondary manufacturers such as paper are vulnerable to cost of raw materials - particularly water.