A good result in the fifth leg of the Volvo Ocean Race, starting on Sunday from Rio de Janeiro, could put Hamble's Neal McDonald in sight of an overall podium place.
But a bad result is set to dash any title hopes for the Assa Abloy skipper who will be chasing race leader Illbruck hard all the way to Miami across 4,450nm to improve on their overall third position.
"We have to have a good leg and Illbruck must have a bad one and if you look at the race historically, it's possible," said McDonald, talking exclusively to the Daily Echo.
Assa Abloy arrived in Rio in fourth place after a terrifying passage through the Southern Ocean, which had McDonald thinking twice about ever returning to iceberg hell.
"It was much worse than anything I have ever seen before. It was the first time in my career that I have spent several days at sea being seriously concerned.
"We did not know whether to slow down. If we had hit an iceberg at anything over 12 knots we would all have been killed but, also, we wanted to get out as quickly as possible.
"If I do this race again, I would like to have some prior knowledge of what is in store - but I will be thinking very seriously about going down there again."
Despite the conditions, Assa emerged unscathed during the three-week stopover in Rio. The entire boat has been dismantled and reassembled to minimise the risk of gear failure during the next leg.
"The next leg will be a mainly tactical one," said McDonald, who's wife Lisa is skipper of the all-women's crew on Amer Sports Too.
"We have to go through the Doldrums so the challenge will be a mental rather than a physical one but we are hoping the light airs will be good for us then bad when the rest of the fleet goes through them."
Lymington's Jason Carrington rejoins the crew for the next leg, having recovered from a urinary infection that forced him to withdraw just hours before the VOR fleet left Auckland in the last leg.
"We know we can win this one - we have one win under our belt already and we feel pretty comfortable with the way we have sailed so far," McDonald said.
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