The international break always feels long but this one has seemed even longer than usual. That certainly wasn’t helped by Saints playing their final game before the hiatus on the Friday of the final weekend and it certainly wasn’t helped by that meek display at Aston Villa.
But finally, Saints are back in action on Saturday as they welcome Everton to St Mary’s. The two sides sit next to each other in the Premier League table, both on seven points.
READ MORE: How Saints have added creative wrinkles to their corners
Frank Lampard’s team have enjoyed something of a mini-renaissance following back-to-back defeats to open the new campaign. They are undefeated since then, drawing four on the bounce prior to earning their first victory against West Ham to go into the international.
Saints have moved in the opposite direction recently, losing three of four and failing to score in each of those three. With time to decompress following the defeats to Wolves and Aston Villa, Ralph Hasenhuttl will be expecting a much-improved performance from his Saints side when they return to action this weekend.
Each game feels massive as Saints move into a run of eight Premier League matches in 42 days leading into this winter’s World Cup.
Here are three things we’ll be looking out for…
1. Where are the goals coming from?
Saints have a big problem to solve and it’s far from a new problem: where are they going to find goals?
It’s no secret that Saints pursued attacking reinforcements this summer and while they failed to recruit the marquee centre-forward most fans craved.
They did bring in Samuel Edozie and Joe Aribo to improve their attacking midfield options while youngster Sekou Mara will challenge Che Adams for minutes up front. But a late move for Cody Gakpo didn’t pan out and Saints are stuck with the options they have now until at least January.
Solutions have to come from what Saints have in-house and solutions have to come quickly. Without a reliable source of goals, Saints are hemorrhaging points, repeatedly coming up short in close encounters.
They could have gotten something from the clash with Manchester United. But they just couldn’t put the ball in the net. They could have gotten something from the defeat at Wolves. But they couldn’t put the ball in the net. They could have gotten something from the visit to Villa Park. But…well you get it.
Everton represents a familiar and stern challenge. Thus far in the 2022/23 season, Saints have won 1.5 points per game when they have had less than 50% of the ball and zero points per game when they’ve had the majority of the ball.
The Toffees rank 15th in average possession this season and travelling away to the South Coast they are likely to try and repeat the formula that has worked throughout their unbeaten run. Sit back, soak up pressure, and hit hard on the break.
Everton haven’t scored more than one goal in any game this season but they also haven’t conceded more than two in any game. Additionally, they’ve conceded just three times in their last five games.
This is likely to be another suspensefully tight encounter with far more battling attritional football than quality. Saints have fallen repeatedly in recent weeks to similar hurdles but must do better if they are to seriously challenge for the top half of the table this season.
The starting point will be goals. Specifically, scoring them. While finishing chances has been an issue - we’re looking at Che Adams’ spectacular one-yard miss at Wolves - Saints also haven’t been creating enough chances either.
Here are some of Saints' attacking statistics through the first four games of the season...
Goals Per Game: 1.25
Expected Goals Per Game: 0.95
Shot Per Game: 12.75
Shots On Target Per Game: 3.5
Shots Inside The Box Per Game: 8.25
Shots Outside The Box Per game: 4.25
And here is the same set of statistical categories from Saints' most recent three matches…
Goals Per Game: 0.67
Expected Goals Per Game: 0.73
Shot Per Game: 9.3
Shots on Target Per Game: 2.3
Shots Inside The Box Per Game: 4.67
Shots Outside The Box Per Game: 4.4.67
As is clear, Saints have drooped in every creative category other than shots from outside the box - which in itself is not positive - considering that it’s come at the expense of shots from closer range.
If Saints are to solve their goalscoring problems, then they are going to have to solve their creativity problems. Chicken and egg.
2. Will Gavin Bazunu and the Saints defence earn their first clean sheet of the season?
While the Saints attack has sputtered significantly in the last few weeks, there are plenty of positives to take in relation to the defensive side of the ball.
Armel Bella-Kotchap’s impressive start to life in English football earned him a first call-up to the Germany squad while alongside him, Mohammed Salisu is nearing the kind of form that made him stand out amongst the best central defenders in the division last season.
Kyle Walker-Peters continues to do Kyle Walker-Peters things while the return of Romain Perraud gives Hasenhuttl balance and extra options. Romeo Lavia’s hamstring injury against Chelsea has no doubt made things harder for the defence but regardless the pieces and the signs are in place.
Yet, despite all that Saints are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season. The only other club to do the same is Leicester City. This statistic isn’t totally representative of Saints’ defensive capabilities as their 11 goals conceded sits 15thcertainly not great - but far from the bottom of the barrel Leicester at 22 and Nottingham Forest at 19.
Decent defensive displays against Manchester United, Wolves, and Aston Villa were ruined by the solitary - and decisive - goal conceded in each but if they can cut down on a few painful issues, the clean sheets should arrive.
Five of the 11 goals Saints have conceded this season have come from set-pieces or open-play crosses while another three have come from counter-attacks. Set-pieces, and more specifically headers - were an achilles heel of Hasenhuttl’s side last season and despite the defensive reinforcements those problems have persisted.
Bella-Kotchap and Salisu are two of the more dominant headerers of the ball in the Premier League so this speaks more to a problem of marking rather than winning the ball in the air. With a 20-year-old goalkeeper in Gavin Bazunu and a defensive unit that still hasn’t played together much, the communication and organisation should steadily improve.
Everton would be a perfect time to put it all into action with a first clean sheet of the campaign.
3. Is it time to shake things up?
Don’t worry, don’t worry, I’m not suggesting Saints return to the back five formation they started the season with. That is an experiment that was tried and failed. But that doesn’t mean Hasenhuttl should just stick with what has achieved mixed results in recent weeks.
Four players have started every Premier League game for Saints this season - Bazunu, Salisu, Walker-Peters, and James Ward-Prowse - while two more - Bella-Kotchap and Moi Elyounoussi - have started each of their last six.
While the majority of those players deserve their place, this team has started to feel slightly stale over the last few weeks, particularly in attack. Adam Armstrong and Elyounoussi have been the two attackers virtually guaranteed a spot behind Che Adams while Joe Aribo and Moussa Djenepo have also received opportunities. But it has not worked.
No doubt some of Saints’ attacking limitation is due to the absence of Romeo Lavia who helps link everything together and make the team tick but Ibrahima Diallo - who was withdrawn at half-time against Aston Villa - is not the answer.
Perhaps Hasenhuttl will have to get creative to solve this problem like he did in the summer when moving Djenepo to left-back as Romain Perraud battled back from a broken foot. Ainsley Maitland-Niles - on loan from Arsenal but left out of the squad altogether for the trip to Villa Park - could be one option at the base of midfield.
Meanwhile, Samuel Edozie has flashed his exciting potential in brief cameos thus far and could help provide the speed and direct running Saints are sometimes lacking should he start on Saturday.
Aribo - who Hasenhuttl likes as a super-sub - no doubt needs to be heavily involved regardless of his role with the Nigerian ranking highly in most attacking categories on a team that has struggled to attack. Additionally, Stuart Armstrong last started for Saints in the 2-2 draw with Leeds and his team seem to miss his energy and link-up play.
Nine of the 11 who started at Aston Villa were at the club last season and after spending so heavily this summer, that is slightly frustrating to see. Hasenhuttl will know there are major issues to resolve and it would come as no surprise to see a much-changed team walk out at St Mary’s this weekend.
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