Southampton are lacking bravery - and paying the price for it

On the surface, the answer to that is easy. This is a young and inexperienced side learning the ropes of the Premier League and taking a few brutal punches as they go through that process. But now, more than 20% of the way through the new season, it’s hard to see the progress that should have been made by now.

There has been progress, both individually and on a team level, but that progress has been followed by multiple steps back. A tough start to the campaign saw Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side beaten easily at Spurs before they clawed back from two goals down to take a point against Leeds.

From there, they took real steps forward. Victory at Leicester was followed by a slender defeat to Manchester United before the seemingly-landmark win against Chelsea. It felt like a corner had been turned. It really did seem like a corner had been turned.

But then it all came crashing down with three consecutive defeats to leave things in a rather uncomfortable place as a light chorus of boos greeted the final whistle at St Mary’s on Saturday.

What is this team? What is the identity of this team? The answers to these questions - or the lack of answers - could determine Hasenhuttl's future.

Hasenhuttl watches on as Saints lose to Everton. Image: Stuart Martin (Image: Hasenhuttl watches on as Saints lose to Everton. Image: Stuart Martin)

At their best under Hasenhuttl, Saints have been a brave in-your-face team. It hasn’t always worked and it has led to some heavy defeats. But it has also led to thrilling victories against some of the league’s best sides and runs of form that showed they could compete with anyone.

But this time around, the principles that seemed to govern the best days of Hasenhuttl’s tenure, have seemingly been replaced by a tepidness, bordering on fear.

On Saturday against Everton, Saints went in front when Joe Aribo slammed home four minutes after half-time. But that lead lasted about as long as it took Everton to kick-off, Conor Coady and Dwight McNeil turning the tide in a flash. 

And while Saints pushed and created enough chances to get back on level terms, disastrous finishing ensured another defeat for Hasenhuttl’s side. We’ve seen this all before. Tame and boring before sparking into life when thrown into desperation mode.

But that was never a sustainable way to live and Saints are paying the price for becoming a reactive team this season. Rather than going on the offensive and trying to turn games themselves, Saints have become a team who are happy to sit back and let the game play out until they are forced into actually doing something.

This certainly isn’t the modus operandi of past Hasenhuttl sides and it's a worrying trend. Aribo’s second Saints goal was also just the second time this season that his team have scored the first goal of the game. In their six other games this season, Saints have conceded the first goal.

This is in direct contrast to last season when Saints actually scored the first goal more frequently than they conceded it - 17 to 16. It didn’t always work - and Saints were punished on numerous occasions - but the aim was clear. Saints came out quickly and tried to punch their opposition in the mouth before they could realise what had hit them. The frequency in which they took the lead, showed the positive potential of this approach.

If #SaintsFC were to make a change, what would be your honest, lasting memories of Ralph Hasenhuttl?

— Alfie House (@AlfieHouseEcho) October 2, 2022

The other side, of course, is that Saints have lost more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side since Hasenhuttl took charge. Last season that number was 29 points. This time around, Saints have ‘only’ lost four points from winning positions while gaining seven from losing positions.

There appears to be an element of intentionality about this. Whereas the open nature of Saints games became both their trademark and at times their achilles heel last season, now they are trying to shut down games from the start.

In total, eight of the 21 goals scored in Saints’ games have come in the first halves of their games compared to 13 in the second halves. But it’s more extreme than that. The earliest goal they have conceded was Spurs’ 21st-minute equaliser on the opening day of the season while the earliest first goal of the game conceded came when Raheem Sterling gave Chelsea the lead after 23 minutes at St Mary’s.

It’s easy to understand any increased fear this season. On top of the points lost from losing positions, Saints also struggled greatly towards the end of their games. Only four teams last season had a worse goal difference for the final quarter-hour of their matches than Saints’ -5.

The trends that defined Saints’ 2021/22 campaign were the points lost from winning positions and their tendency to collapse late on. Seemingly in an attempt to combat those issues, Hasenhuttl has tried to make Saints more of a second half team. And while it has led to certain successes, it has created a far more reactive and far less brave team.

It would be unfair to suggest Hasenhuttl himself has totally abandoned bravery. He continues to trust inexperienced youngster, 18-year-old Juan Larios the latest to get his full debut under the Austrian. But that bravery hasn't translated to the way his team is playing.

In Saints’ eight games thus far they have fallen behind on average at the 44th minute. What we’ve seen is a complete change in the way Saints play following these goals. Hasenhuttl has described it as going “all in” but it’s felt somewhat desperate at times.

Saints have managed 37 shots in their first halves and 62 after half time, coming up with 63 of their 99 total shots after going behind (64%). They’ve also - unsurprisingly based on the rest of these statistics - scored six of their eight goals after trailing.

Che Adams in action against Everton. Image: Stuart Martin (Image: Che Adams reacts after a miss against Everton. Image: Stuart Martin)

Asked whether he feels his team plays better when losing, rejected the suggestion.

“In the second-half we played well when it was equal but then they go ahead and we go all-in, taking more risks,” the Austrian told the Daily Echo following Saints' 2-1 defeat to Everton.

“This is normal I think. But when you are only 60 seconds in the lead this is absolutely frustrating to be honest, when you concede a goal in the first action of the goal.”

But the reality is clear to see. Saints have toiled in each tight game and come alive when losing. And at least in part, it seems to be the way Hasenhuttl wants his team to play. Saints average 39.5% of the ball in the first halves of their games and 50% in the second. The common denominator in the vast majority of these second halves? Losing.

At its core, it makes sense that Saints would prioritise the development of something of a backbone this season. Hasenhuttl has been burnt time and time again by his side’s inability to control games and remain solid. And with Armel Bella-Kotchap excelling amongst an improved-looking defensive unit, there is reason to believe Saints can control games.

But they also are yet to keep a clean sheet. The issue is no matter how solid they are or how much of the game they are able to control, Saints are continuing to make that rather meaningless by conceding easy goals.

The kryptonite for this Saints defence has been crosses and set-pieces, the same manner in which they were destroyed in past years. Only Leicester conceded more headed goals than Saints last season and the frailty from wide areas has continued through the new campaign. Nine of 12 goals conceded this season have come from crosses with five of 12 goals coming from set-pieces.

This is the blueprint to beat Saints. Allow the first half to remain tight and attritional with the knowledge that Saints probably aren't going to force the issue or grab the opening goal. Meanwhile, create easy clear-cut opportunities by spammng the Saints box with crosses. For a team to sit deep and excel they have to make the opposition raelly work for goalscoring opportunities. Saints have made it too easy.

For what it's worth, Hasenhuttl does seem to feel Saints' set-piece problems are on the road to being solved.

"You can imagine that we have spent a lot of time on this, this is for sure and we feel the benefit is not there yet,” Hasenhuttl insisted, speaking after the defeat.

“We also have the feeling that we are dangerous from set-pieces but in the moment we don’t score and this is hopefully coming."

Hasenhutt seems scarred by last season's collapse and while that is no doubt understandable - something had to change - he appears to be sacrificing bravery for solidity. But Saints aren't solid enough to make that work.

Perhaps in time, this new style will be rewarded. But does Hasenhuttl have that time? 

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