Three big questions for Southampton FC ahead of Newcastle semi-final

Now though, is where things get really difficult. The first leg last week at St Mary’s saw Saints do a lot right, but ultimately lose 1-0. It gives them a mammoth task on Tuesday night as they travel to St James’ Park not only needing to win but needing to overturn the one-goal deficit.

Is it likely? The truth is, it isn’t. Newcastle were favourites for the tie coming into proceedings and they are even more so now. But Saints have shown what they can be on their day. They’ll need something close to perfect to get past Eddie Howe’s brute force.

“It's not mission impossible by a long stretch, it's a game of football - anything can happen,” Jones said on Monday morning. 

“What we have to do is be the best versions of ourselves. That's what we know we have to do, we have to have a game plan, we have to be good and we have to execute it.

“Newcastle are in good form but they are not going to go for the rest of their lives without getting beaten, so why not get beaten tomorrow night? That's what we have to attempt to do. Now, we go there in good spirits.”

Saints have the chance to do something really special at St James’ Park. Here are three questions we’ll be looking for answers to…

1. Can Saints actually do the unthinkable - and score?

The first leg of this semi-final clash provided an ultimately frustrating window into the strengths and weaknesses of these two sides. Newcastle, led by the imperious Nick Pope in goal, kept their quite ridiculous 10th clean sheet in a row in last week’s 1-0 victory at St Mary’s. 

Meanwhile, Saints did well to hang around in the game and created the chances to really make their top-four chasing opponents. But as has been the case throughout much of this season, when presented with the opportunities to upstage Newcastle, they failed to take them.

First, it was Che Adams who ran onto a delightful Charly Alcaraz through ball before seeing his effort saved by Pope’s feet with the goal gaping. 

Adams’s chance came with the game at 0-0 and firmly resting on a knife edge. Saints’ second big chance was after Joelinton had given the Magpies the lead but that only heightened its importance as Adam Armstrong flailed at a cross, totally missed it, and somehow bundled the ball into the net with the help of his hand.

Raucous celebrations followed but upon seeing the replay, there was clearly only one outcome: disallowed due to handball. Unsurprisingly, VAR agreed and Saints now have to overturn a one-goal deficit at St Mary’s.

That in itself sounds daunting, but the real challenge is perhaps even more daunting: score at least once - and in all likelihood - at least twice.

Saints’ blunt and boring attack has failed to find the net on seven occasions in all competitions so far this season while they’ve scored more than once nine times, five of those coming in cup competitions and three of those coming against lower-league opposition.

Nathan Jones insists that he feels his Saints team is now more solid than when he took over and while that could be true, he hasn’t managed to solve their impotence issues. Since Jones took over in November, Saints have averaged 1.2 goals per game, scoring more than once in just three of 11 matches.

Romain Perraud notched a brace from left-back on Saturday to send Saints past Blackpool and into the fifth round of the FA Cup but that did little to alleviate the fears around the rest of the team’s struggle to do the most important thing: put the ball in the back of the net.

Now, Saints go to Newcastle safe in the knowledge that there is only one way they can get to Wembley for the League Cup final. They need to score. Probably more than once. Are they up to the task? It’s hard to feel confident but this is the time to come up with something special.

2. With options available will Nathan Jones go with a back four or back five?

Flexibility has been at the heart of Jones’s early spell as Saints manager. Personnel, tactics, and formation, Jones has been happy to mix it up. That proclivity for change has seen Jones switch frequently between a back four and five. At times, that’s been based on what he has available to him but that won’t be the case on Tuesday night. 

Other than long-term absentees such as Tino Livramento and Juan Larios, Jones largely has a full squad to choose from including returning defensive options Duje Caleta-Car, Jan Bednarek, and new signing James Bree.

Caleta-Car started in the first leg against Newcastle and was sent off with minutes left in the match but after serving his suspension on Saturday, is now available should Jones choose him. The same goes for Bednarek and Bree who have recently arrived to the group, the former from his unsuccessful loan move to Aston Villa and the latter on a permanent transfer from Luton Town.

Armed with all these options as well as Armel Bella-Kotchap who played the full game against Blackpool, Jones has the personnel to go with either a back four or back five. Perraud certainly stated his case at the weekend and while Jones seems cautious to utilise the Frenchman in a four, a wing-back role in a five could suit him perfectly.

Whatever Jones decides, he must set up a team that can truly hit Newcastle and throw them out of their comfort zone. With the force of St James’ Park behind them, it will be a massive task to beat the Magpies and it will take bravery and intensity that hasn’t always been present in this Saints team.

Those are the qualities Jones must find in his Saints team this evening - regardless of formation or system.

3. Distraction or a finished day? 

It’s no secret that while the excitement of a semi-final second leg has occupied much of the Saints psyche in recent days, the rest of it is taken up by something potentially even more crucial: the final hours of the January transfer window.

Thus far Saints have brought in Mislav Orsic and Charly Alcaraz and while the latter especially has already impressed in the earliest days of his Premier League career, more is needed. That much is clear to Saints fans as well as Nathan Jones who has spoken on numerous occasions of their need for increased firepower.

With goals so hard to come by and limited options up front, Saints have been crying out for a striker. But they were also crying out for a striker in the summer. 

Rumours continue to swirl about possible options but with less than a day before the transfer window slams shut at 11PM on Tuesday night, Saints are still searching. And it sounds as if they’ll only pull the trigger should the right opportunity materialise.

"I can't say anything on any names and it'd be wrong to do that because there's nothing definitive in any one of our deals," Jones said, speaking ahead of the trip to Newcastle.

"What we are doing is working tirelessly and constantly on all levels to try and improve the squad. We want to get one in, we've worked so hard to get one in but there'll be certain constraints here in terms of stuff.

"And also we have to improve significantly because I don't want a knee jerk. I don't want to get just anyone in just to hopefully give us something but then put the future of the club in jeopardy - we wouldn't want to do that,” he added.

“We have players here that are capable of scoring goals and we have to work with those and improve that ratio, and if we can, can give them help."

Jones says Saints won’t panic and their track record under Sport Republic makes that an easy claim to believe. But Saints are also risking their Premier League status by failing to upgrade in attack. Does this team have enough goals in them to stay up? It’s almost impossible to answer yes to that question.

An added wrinkle to what could be a frantic conclusion to the window is that Saints kick off in Newcastle at 8PM - with a full three hours left to get any potential deals over the line.

Will they still have work to do as the team plays one of the most important games of the season? It’s certainly possible. Jones will be praying that isn’t a distraction as his team embarks on a gigantic challenge to reach Wembley.

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