If Southampton FC go down, it must be in a blaze of glory

According to retired England international Glen Johnson, Saints barely have a hope in the world with the former Liverpool defender saying: "I think Southampton are the clear favourites to go down.”

Meanwhile, the supercomputers at statistics websites Opta and FiveThirtyEight have measured Saints’ relegation odds at 87.4% and 79% respectively. 

Even the most ardent Saints fans are understandably pessimistic with a poll garnering more than 1,600 votes on the popular supporter Twitter account ‘SouthamptonPage’ seeing 83% vote in the direction of relegation.

READ MORE: Saints desperately need inspiration - Could Djenepo provide it?

It’s not over yet but four points adrift of safety with eight games left to go - eight pretty challenging games - leaves Saints in a dark and deepening pit. 

The likelihood is - as discussed above - that Saints won’t get out of it and the post-mortem of this dreadful campaign will be full of reasons and explanations for what led them to the Championship.

Saints fans can’t realistically expect their team to stay up, that much is obvious. But what they can expect - and should expect - is for their team to go down fighting.

If they do go down - and end the club’s 11-season stay in the top flight - then it better be in a blaze of glory rather than the whimper that has accompanied much of this term.

So, if you checked the table and the games and the stats then Southampton are relegated this season.

However some people might believe #SaintsFC can still stay up and shock everyone.

So the question is: Do you think Southampton will stay up or go down?

Vote below 👇

— Southampton Page (@SouthamptonPage) April 11, 2023

Across three managers now, the approach from Saints has been clear: stay alive in each game and hope they can end up on the right side of the fine margins involved in Premier League football.

In some ways, it's worked. Only five of Saints’ 19 league defeats this season have come by more than two goals and two of those five came against Manchester City. They’ve lost a whopping 11 games by one goal, eight of those by the scoreline 1-0.

If damage limitation and competitiveness was the aim, then Saints would be enjoying a fairly solid season. But that isn’t the aim nor the necessity. Points are. And Saints’ style, set-up, and approach clearly hasn’t been good enough to get concrete rewards.

Ralph Hasenhuttl - seemingly scarred by last season’s collapse and the heavy defeats Saints suffered along the way - came into the season trying to turn an aggressive front-footed culture into a defensive back-five side. That system didn’t last long but the tone was set.

Nathan Jones made no secret of his priority to make Saints into a defensively solid outfit before focusing on the attacking issues and while there were minor signs of progress, they never got close during his brief stint in charge.

And finally, under Ruben Selles, Saints have continued with many of the same ideals as his two predecessors trialled and failed with this season. 

Saints react after conceding to Man City on Saturday. (Image: Stuart Martin)

For his part, Selles is insistent that his iteration of Saints always go on the front foot - without going ‘crazy’. Speaking after Saturday’s 4-1 defeat to Man City, the Spaniard defended his side’s approach saying:

“We always go on the front foot but we cannot go crazy on the front foot and open up spaces.

“Like today, for example, we can go high and apply the pressure – but if we are not organised we will never do it.

“We will still have the same approach really, we know we are competitive and know we can compete against anybody.

“So it is to take the same approach, to believe in what we are doing and to try and play with what we think is the correct thing.”

He added: “We know if we are a team that just kicks it long and goes for the second action we will go nowhere.

“We have been building an identity now for two months and we have a team in which you can recognise how Southampton wants to do things.

“That’s where we are, we need to be proud of what we do. I think we are, and the connections will be there and we will be competitive and get more points for sure.”

Selles is certainly correct that Saints have to be careful. The Premier League is as punishing an arena as it gets in football and mistakes lead to consequences.

But this idea that Saints have developed anything close to an exciting and aggressive new identity isn’t being supported by what fans see on the pitch or by the statistics that underlie the recent performances.

The most damaging statistic is also the most obvious one. In eight games under Selles, Saints have scored only six goals. You can’t realistically stay up like that.

Additionally, it’s not that they are creating and missing chances - they just aren’t really creating them at all. While they are slightly underperforming their expected goals (xG) - the number of goals a team should score based on the quantity and quality of the chances they create - the disparity is nothing dramatic.

According to Saints’ xG numbers from the past eight games, they should have scored just over seven goals in that time but instead, they’ve scored six.

When you factor in the epic profligacy this group has displayed throughout the season, then six appears about the right total for how many goals they should have scored. It’s not enough.

Sekou Mara celebrates making it 3-1 against Man City. (Image: PA)

In five of the eight games under Selles, Saints have recorded an xG total of less than 1.0 meaning that they didn’t necessarily create enough to score at all. In five out of eight games. Over the course of the season, Saints have suffered some bad luck but they deserve to be where they are and that hasn’t changed under Selles.

Granted, the Spaniard’s eight fixtures have thrown up major challenges against the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United, Spurs, and Manchester City, but they’ve also faced huge meetings with Leeds United and West Ham - where they twice failed to show up at all.

Unsurprisingly, those are two of the games that saw Saints accumulate less than 1.0xG and unsurprisingly, they lost both. On Saturday, they face another of the league’s struggling sides in Crystal Palace and it can’t be the same a third time around.

There’s been ample evidence that this Saints team isn’t good enough for an approach based on solidity. Maybe it’s problems with their mentality or concentration but however you want to spin it, they can’t do it. So it’s time to change.

If Saints are to go down, then they must do so in a blaze of glory. They must take the game to Palace and if things go awry, so be it. That means defensive attackers such as Moi Elyounoussi, Stuart Armstrong, and Adam Armstrong - with their combined two goals and two assists this season - should be nowhere near the team.

Saints are crying out for pace, unpredictability, and above all, boldness. Selles’s team selection needs to reflect that and their performance on the pitch must reflect that.