Southampton have piled pressure on themselves and Crystal Palace clash

No doubt Ruben Selles and his players will lead with the line that this is just another game and they will approach it like any other.

Of course, as we all know, that is categorically false - this is not just another game. This is potentially the game, the chance, and certainly one of the last for Saints this term.

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With eight games left to play - seven after Saturday’s meeting with Palace - Saints will have more opportunities to drag themselves out of the relegation pit they are in.

But with upcoming fixtures against Arsenal, Brighton, Newcastle, and Liverpool - the first three of those away from home - relying on those remaining seven matches feels hopeful rather than realistic.

They still have games at home against Bournemouth and away to Nottingham Forest, so there will be opportunities but it's getting mighty late.

Looking at things through the lens of realism - which naturally means the lens of pessimism in the current world of Saints - there’s no way to undersell this weekend’s contest. There is very real pressure on Selles and his team to not only perform to take all three points by any means necessary.

And that pressure is all their own blame.

Pressure is either earned by success and the necessity to keep that going - a title race for example. Or pressure is enforced by repeated failure and the necessity to alter that. Say, a relegation battle.

While Saints will want to enter the clash with Crystal Palace free from the shackles of pressure, the reality is that for this team it has never been higher and that’s due to their constant and repeated inability to handle the pressure throughout the season.

If Saints do go down and in the process end their 11-season stay in the top flight, then it won’t be due to their performances against the best in the league. 

Six of their 23 points - a whopping 26% - have come against Chelsea while they’ve taken at least a point in five out of 11 games (45.5%) against the traditional bix six plus Newcastle United. Meanwhile, they’ve collected points in just six of 19 games against the rest of the league (31.6%).

Throughout the season, Saints have stepped up when least expected and fallen dramatically when facing expectation to succeed. The problem is that as thrilling as it is to defy the odds against the league’s best sides, the games against those around you in the table are far more crucial.

And thus far, Saints have folded far too often against those they really need to beat. 2023 started with the dismal 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Foret before the Nathan Jones micro-era concluded with another damaging loss, this time to ten-man Wolves. Saints did beat Everton at Goodison Park in the interim, but those positive results have remained the outlier against the bad, even since the former Luton boss departed.

It’s a worrying trend that has continued under Ruben Selles. Saints’ eight points collected in eight games with the Spaniard in charge have come against Chelsea (three), Manchester United (one), Spurs (one), and Leicester City (three). Outside of the Leicester game, they have failed their biggest tests while stepping up against the best - the story of Saints’ season.

At Elland Road, Saints never pitched up as Jave Gracia and his new Leeds side were allowed to get their season back on track with a crucial 1-0 victory. And it was the same at the London Stadium where West Ham scored the only goal of the game in the first half before keeping Saints at bay with ease.

Even against Leicester - a result that can’t be understated - Saints were far from their most convincing as the Foxes failed to take advantage of multiple presentable chances.

Their best performances, both this season and under Selles, have come against the sides at the top rather than the bottom with games against Chelsea, United, and the final 15 minutes against Spurs.

The intangible trends are somewhat obvious. When the pressure is off and no one expects Saints to win, that’s when they perform at their best. But when the pressure of a potentially divisive encounter with a relegation rival presents itself, they’ve folded more times than not.

In 2023 alone they’ve had six games against the nine sides that have been serious relegation contenders - Nottingham Forest, Everton, Wolves, Leeds, Leicester, and West Ham. They’ve lost four of those six and failed to score in three of them. In just one of those six - the win at Everton - have they scored more than once.

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When Saints faced Forest at St Mary’s, it felt like a major opportunity they could not pass up. They did. Armed with the lead and an extra man against Wolves, it felt like a major opportunity they could not pass up. They did. At Leeds, there was a chance to build momentum following Selles’s debut win at Chelsea. They didn’t.

You’re getting the picture by now. Time and time again, Saints have failed to step up in the pressure moments and all that has done is heap added pressure on the next of these high-stakes clashes.

Now, they welcome Crystal Palace to St Mary’s and in truth the pressure could not be higher. The stakes could not feel higher.

Win and Saints are back in with a genuine chance of survival. Lose and it could well be over - or close to that. Saints have given us ample evidence to prove they can’t handle the pressure. They must now prove they can.