The numbers that have led Southampton to the brink of relegation

11 season of top-flgith football look set to be coming to an end as Saints sit four points adrift of safety with seven games left to play.

Everton's near-equal struggles in recent weeks have given Saints something of a chance but with fixtures lef to play against Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton, and Liverpool, it's hard to be optimisitc.

The real key though to that last point is that Saints are pushing themselves off the edge. Unable to score and equally unable to keep teams out, Saints are bottom of the table for a reason.

James Ward-Prowse applauds the remaining Saints fans after Saturday's defeat. (Image: Richard Crease)

Here we've taken a look at some of the numbers that have led Saints to the brink of Championship football...

12 vs 11

Perhaps the most damaging numbers of all. Added together, this equates 23, the number of points Saints have collected after 31 games of the Premier League season. Not nearly enough for survival, the breakdown of those 23 - 12 vs 11 - is possibly even more concerning.

12 is the number of points Saints picked up in Ralph Hasenhuttl’s 14 games as manager while 11 is the amount they’ve taken in the 17 matches since.

This isn’t to say that Saints should have stuck by Hasenhuttl. There were plenty of reasons to believe that the Autrian’s time was up, notably as he went away from his previously bold ideals to a far safer - and ultimately unsuccessful - strategy.

Every managerial era eventually runs out of time and it’s fair to suggest Hasenhuttl had reached the end of his cycle as Saints boss.

Had Saints kept Hasenhuttl and continued at the same rate of 0.86 points per game, they would currently find themselves on 26 points and still in deep trouble.

But the number on the other side of that 23 - the 11 - says a great deal about the failings of the club and the failings of Sport Republic to find the right figurehead to lead this group.

As we all know by now, Sport Republic’s chosen Hasenhuttl successor was Nathan Jones and by the time that disastrous experiment ended eight games after it started, Saints were in far more trouble than when the former Luton boss arrived.

Former Saints boss Ralph Hasenhuttl. (Image: Stuart Martin)

Needing a third permanent manager of the season, Saints initially turned to Jesse Marsch but after the American turned down the job, they stuck with interim head coach Ruben Selles.

The results have been mixed. Eight points in nine games at 0.89 points per game is a better return than Hasenhuttl managed - and of course better than Jones’s three points in eight games. 

But it hasn’t been enough and the reluctance to take off the handbrake for a side that has now scored six times under Selles (three of those in the second half against Spurs) has led to understandable discontent. Saints - under a third manager now - have consistently set up scared and it’s led to a team greatly lacking in bravery and guts.

13

Connecting to the previous discussion - and the challenges Selles has found during his short period in charge - is the destructive number 13. Unlucky number 13, but for Saints there has been nothing unlucky about the 13 games they have failed to score in.

Saturday’s 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace now means Saints have been held without a goal in nearly 42% of their matches this season. And in only one of those 13 did they hold the other side to the same, meaning they’ve lost 12 times this season without scoring. 

Theo Walcott reacts to a missed chance against Crystal Palace. (Image: Richard Crease)

Creating chances has been a major challenge for this team all season while taking chances has perhaps been an even bigger achilles heel. Gigantic misses have followed Saints around all season with Che Adams’ impressive ability to handle the ball from one yard out at Wolves perhaps summing up the sorry state of affairs in front of goal.

Unfortunately, in recent weeks under Selles, even the chances have dried up. Saints have failed to reach 1.0xG in six of the nine games under Selles, displaying what has become obvious: Saints can’t buy a goal.

7

Speaking of goals, Saints have been unable to buy any of those and they’ve failed miserably in buying the players who score them. Hasenhuttl made it clear in the summer that he expected a marquee striker to arrive but attempted moves for Goncalo Ramos and Cody Gakpo ended with youngster Sekou Mara as the only forward signing.

The January window went slightly better as Paul Onuachu arrived for a fee of around £18m. Yet, in a bizarre episode of a bizarre season, Onuachu has almost immediately been deemed not good enough by Selles and has started none of the last seven games - even as Adams remains sidelined through injury.

Saints striker Che Adams. (Image: Stuart Martin)

All that has brought us to the number seven: the amount of goals scored by recognised Saints strikers this season. Five of those were scored by Adams - who really should have many more - while the other two were notched by Adam Arsmtrong and Sekou Mara.

Hasenhuttl would rightly point to the lack of a striker in the summer as a major reason for his eventual departure but it’s been an issue to plague all three Saints managers this season.

No one knows how different this doomed campaign would have been had they acquired a big name striker in the summer but their failure to find solutions has killed any chances for momentum this season.

6

Sport Republic made no secret of their intended strategy when they purchased a controlling stake in Saints last January.

Bold and daring, the plan was to build young and untested in order to spark the next wave of Saints’ excellence. There was certainly risk involved in such a strategy but last summer’s transfer window made it clear that this was going to be how Sport Republic operated, for good or for bad. Eight players aged 20 or younger were signed in the past two transfer window.

However, the number six is in relation to the rest of Saints’ transfer business: the number of players brought in over the age of 24.

Those six are: Joe Aribo, Duje Caleta-Car, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Mislav Orsic, Paul Onuachu, and James Bree.

Notice any trends in that group? Well, the big trend is that they’ve all been total failures outside of Maitland-Niles and if he’s the shining light for this group then it’s even worse than imagined.

Saints January signing of Mislav Orsic has been an unmitigated disaster. (Image: Stuart Martin)

Orsic may go down as one of the worst signings in Premier League history having played a total of nine minutes since his January move. Meanwhile, Aribo, Caleta-Car, Bree, and Onuachu have all been cast aside at various points and none seem to be in Selles’s plans.

Maitland-Niles has started 11 league matches this season and performed admirably at times across multiple positions but there has been no clamour from supporters for a permanent move, showcasing their relative apathy towards the Arsenal loanee.

With Saints building through untested talent, they needed the right experienced players alongside to help guide the teenagers on their journey. Instead, they recruited a group of experienced players who have been largely deemed unusable, a seismic failure that has hindered the balance and growth of this squad.

0

Finally, the number zero. Usually not the most promising of numbers and this time it’s associated to a horribly damaging record for Saints: the amount of times they’ve won back to back games this season. That’s right, they are yet to do so.

Saints did go three games in a row unbeaten in October but through 31 matches they are yet to win two on the trot. The last time they did so was the last time Saints fans truly believed in their team, during last February’s march up the table.

This time around, Saints have been unable to build any sort of momentum and they only have themselves to blame.

Aston Villa celebrate their lone goal at St Mary's. (Image: Stuart Martin)

Following August’s victory against Chelsea, Saints visited Molineux and the tamest of performances saw them lose 1-0 to Wolves. Three points at Goodison Park in January preceded a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa. And surprise success at Stamford Bridge in Selles’s managerial debut came before another 1-0 defeat - this time to Leeds United.

Whenever Saints seem set to threaten to build a head of steam - and they’ve had plenty of chances - it’s come crumbling down with barely a whimper. Amongst the many reasons for their likely relegation, this could prove decisive.