Southampton must trust summer rebuild to new manager instead of Selles

That’s not to say Selles didn’t deserve the opportunity.

Having arrived last summer to work under Ralph Hasenhuttl before sticking around following the Austrian’s sacking, Selles is one of the few constants in this season of disruption. And with nearly 15 years of coaching experience around Europe, he certainly paid enough dues to warrant a chance.

But now, nine games into his maiden spell as a first team manager, it’s clear that Saints must go in another direction this summer. 

READ MORE: The numbers that have led Saints to the brink of relegation

Elements of that are because of what Selles has shown but elements of that are simply because Saints need a fresh start: they must shed the scared skin that has destroyed their season and move in a new direction, pushed by optimism and bravery.

Many aspects of Selles’s brief tenure - from his team selection, to his tactical set-up, to some of his press conference musings - deserve rigorous assessment and no doubt, heavy criticism. But it’s also important to recognise the tough hand he’s been dealt.

Selles inherited a team on a downward spiral following the disastrous micro-era of Nathan Jones and he inherited a team with gigantic season-long frailties. But he’s also displayed enough faults of his own to take him out of the running for the job of Saints' next permanent manager, regardless of the division they end up in.

Saints captain James Ward-Prowse reacts to defeat against Crystal Palace. (Image: Richard Crease)

There’s no question that while Selles is highly regarded within the club, he was never Sport Republic’s first choice to take the reins. 

That much was evident in the summer when they stuck by Hasenhuttl and it was evident when they chose Jones to replace him while allowing the former Luton boss to bring in his own staff and relegate Selles to a peripheral figure. 

And perhaps the greatest evidence that the club didn’t plan for Selles to be in charge came when Jones departed. A brief search for a new boss led to Jesse Marsch and just as it seemed a deal would be completed, Saints moved the goal-posts at the last second and the American decided to steer clear.

With no realistic options ahead of their trip to Chelsea, Saints stuck with Selles and after an uplifting 1-0 victory, he was given the full-time job. 

Clubs should never make snap decisions fueled by emotion and this call seemed exactly that. Yes, Selles was and is liked by the Saints squad but entrusting the fate of a relegation battle to the hands of someone who had managed a total of two professional games? That just screams negligence.

Yet by the time the March international break came rolling around, Selles and his Saints team had collected eight crucial points from six games. The brief turnaround was inspired by a newfound defensive backbone that saw Saints keep three clean sheets in his first four matches. 

But the lack of goals - just two scored in his first five games - flashed major warning signs while there was genuine fortune in the missed chances from Chelsea and Leicester that allowed Saints to emerge unscathed from those two clashes.

Perhaps luck run out but those clean sheets have disappeared and Saints have now conceded in each of their last five games. Additionally, the well of goals has remained remarkably dry.

Three consecutive defeats since the international break has left Saints on the brink of the Championship and Selles seems unable to reverse the tide while it’s fair to wonder if he’s going about it in the right way.

Selles is now the third permanent manager this season who has attempted to reverse Saints’ fortunes by turning them into a reinvingorated defensive unit.

Hasenhuttl began the season in a back five as he tried to fix his traditionally leaky defence while Jones made no secret of his primary aim being to earn clean sheets before shifting focus to the attack.

Nathan Jones made it his mission to fix Saints' leaky defence. (Image: Stuart Martin)

It didn’t work for either of his predecessors and Selles has fallen into the same trap. A focus on solidity has seen more 'reliable' options such as Moi Elyounoussi, Stuart Armstrong, and Ainsley Maitland-Niles take the places of Saints potentially more brilliant possibilities including Joe Aribo, Samuel Edozie, Romain Perraud, and Paul Onuachu.

Meanwhile, Selles has pushed James Ward-Prowse into a deeper role after the midfielder operated further forward under Jones - losing the attacking impetus the captain provided - one of the few decisions that actually paid off for the Welshman.

As previously mentioned, Selles did find initial success with those three clean sheets but it’s become clear over recent weeks that the current boss is having the same issue as the previous two. This Saints team simply isn’t good enough defensively to survive in games and each attempt to do so usually ends in conceding anyways.

That was certainly the case on Saturday against Crystal Palace and it was the case in gigantic defeats to other relegation rivals Leeds United and West Ham. In all three of those games, Saints failed to score.

Saints fans have been desperate to see a team go down fighting - if they are to go down - but Selles has overseen the continuation of the sad whimper that has been present all season.

It’s one thing to set up for survival against teams like Manchester City and Spurs but the toothless approaches to huge games against those around them in the table will leave a bitter taste.

What would have happened had Saints really gone for it? What would have happened had they thrown caution to the wind and become the aggressors rather than pacifist responders? Truthfully we’ll never know, but the fear-fueled battle to avoid the drop has been tough to watch and led to concrete failure.

In his introductory press conference, Selles made it clear that he felt he was ready for the step up from coach to manager, particularly stating his excitement at finally being able to play his own ideas rather than the ideas of the managers he had deputised under.

Yet the ideas on show have largely been a mirror of the two bosses who preceded him, particularly Hasenhuttl, someone Selles has spoken about as a mentor. Frequently utilising a 4-2-2-2, Selles’s Saints have prioritised effective pressing while often offering a narrow shape in order to win the ball back and make them difficult to play through.

Those priorities, in part, explain Selles's deference for literally anyone over £18m January signing Onuachu.

Unfortunately for Selles, his version of Saints resembles the final days of Hasenhuttl’s tenure far more than the previous teams the former Leipzig boss oversaw, characterised by their bravery and willingness to risk.

This Selles side shares more similarities to the Jones iteration of Saints than it does to Hasenhuttl’s best teams. Granted, they might not smash the ball long with the frequency they did under Jones but as with the two managers before him, Selles has prioritised safety over danger.

Joe Aribo in action against Crystal Palace - his first Premier League start of 2023. (Image: Richard Crease)

Selles is insistent that a new identity has developed under him over the past few months. 

“We know if we are a team that just kicks it long and goes for the second action we will go nowhere,” the 39-year-old said after Saints’ 4-1 defeat to Man City.

“We have been building an identity now for two months and we have a team in which you can recognise how Southampton wants to do things.

“That’s where we are, we need to be proud of what we do. I think we are, and the connections will be there and we will be competitive and get more points for sure.”

It’s an idea that’s clearly seeped down to the players as well with Kyle Walker-Peters telling the Daily Echo ahead of the Crystal Palace defeat:

“I definitely see the identity we’re building and it’s definitely something we needed to improve on, but the most important thing we need to improve on now is in both boxes.”

The Saints players might believe in a growing identity and perhaps in the background it’s even there. But in reality, Saints are showcasing the exact same problems that led to the two managerial sackings this season.

READ MORE: Three young players Southampton should build around next season

While Selles has had the challenge of facing four of the traditional big six, it’s the approach and performances against the rest of their opponents that breed worry.

Saints have failed to hit 1.0xG (expected goals) in three of four games against their relegation rivals while also failing to hit that mark against Brentford, Chelsea, and Man City.

Saints still create next to nothing while scoring virtually no goals. They are still incredibly susceptible to crosses and set-pieces. And they still keep showing themselves to be so fragile that they fold at the first signs of hardship.

Is this really the identity Saints fans and the club’s hierarchy want for their team? A team who are downright boring to watch while lacking the mental mettle to fight through trauma? 

This is the identity of failure, the identity of acceptance, and the identity of relegation.

Next season, whatever happens, Saints needs to start fresh. They need to rid themselves of the fear that seems to govern everything they do and they need to rebuild with a clean slate of courage and spirit.

To do that, Saints need to start over with a new figurehead to lead this inevitable rebuilding job.

It would be foolish to suggest Selles isn’t a good coach based on his track record and references but it’s also clear that he isn’t the answer for what Saints need going forward. This summer must be a complete cultural reset.