What do Southampton need to do to survive in the Premier League?

It has been some fixture. Even putting the two 1-0 defeats aside, that is now seven home matches against Forest in the Premier League without a win.

Some of the criticism that comes Southampton's way now will likely be overboard and reactionary but they will have to take it on the chin.

For all that has been said, I do think it's key to keep some faith. It's two games into a 38-game season and you don't know yet, even if you think it's bleak. Good people all about the place who deserve backing. #SaintsFC

— Alfie House (@AlfieHouseEcho) August 25, 2024

Playing at home for the first time on their return to the top flight against another team likely to be in the bottom half, Saints must show intent.

They instead slumped to defeat against Forest and did little to inspire the new 'Northam Wall' into action - until an 18 year old lad came on, anyway.

Saints lacked incisiveness and managed just one shot on target all game - a speculative effort from their most involved player, Kyle Walker-Peters.

Kyle Walker-Peters remains Southampton's most dangerous player (Image: Stuart Martin)

Former Wolves midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White delivered the winner for manager Nuno Espirito Santo, finishing inside the box in the 70th minute.

Saints, likely for a combination of reasons, just seemed to lack energy from the get-go and they found it impossible to mount meaningful attacks.

Russell Martin's side attempted 90 passes for every shot they took (633 for seven), while Forest required only 18 passes for each shot attempt.

By comparison, Saints averaged 40 passes per shot against Newcastle United and around 45 throughout the 2023/24 Championship season.

Such is Martin's customary domination of the ball, Forest had one fewer attack (43 to 44) and yet 12 more shots and six more on target. 

Walker-Peters, who had four of Southampton's seven attempts, was the only Saints player to register more than 0.01xG.

"There was a lot of tension in the team and Forest started well. We turned the ball over too much which meant there was tension in the stadium," Martin said.

Saints manager Russell Martin spoke to the press after the match (Image: Stuart Martin)

"We made a couple of moments that we didn't make the most of but I think it was out of eagerness to make things happen.

"The minute we got into their final third we just turned it over and against Forest, it's the worst thing you can do. It's frustrating because we spoke about it all week."

It is not a surprise that Forest's average pass length into the opposition's third was 33.8 metres compared to 21.8m - nor is it a problem.

It does not mean Saints need to divert from their path and lump it long to get results in the Premier League, however effective a tactic for other teams.

But they do need to find a way to pose opposition a threat and the next three graphs combine to illustrate a potentially key issue from Saturday's match.

Southampton's average player positions vs Nottingham Forest (Image: Wyscout)

This map shows the average positions of Southampton's players, with the starters indicated by red circles and the substitutes transparent.

Southampton's average player positions vs Nottingham Forest (Image: Wyscout)

This map shows the passing network, with the thicker lines and dots representing frequency. Only combinations with more than three passes are shown.

Saints attacks by flanks and danger level vs Nottingham Forest (Image: Wyscout)

The final graph shows the effectiveness of the attacks from each third of the pitch - on this occasion, showing near zero effectiveness from the flanks.

Adam Armstrong and Ben Brereton Diaz have been operating as wide forwards, hugging the touchline for a lot of the match as indicated on the graph.

This was the same system as used in the final pre-season friendly against Getafe and at Newcastle - all matches ended goalless, for different reasons.

Saints looked like they were crying out for someone to break through the middle and Martin suggested they may tweak something next week. 

He said: "They both had chances inside the box at Newcastle. It's the same shape we won the play-offs with and it makes us fairly solid. 

"It's utilising the players that we have at the minute in the best way. I've learned a lot about that in the last two games and what we need to tweak."

However, Martin added: "But we'll see it again and we might not. It's not the reason we lose."

Saints are not a million miles off. Although it was hard to see where from, a couple of goals in the first two would have changed the complexion completely.

Cameron Archer has had a couple of chances at goal during his substitute appearances (Image: Stuart Martin)

They missed a big opportunity to give their fans belief with either a sharp home performance or a result, which he put down to a "rubbish" goal conceded.

But there are 36 matches to go and new signings Mateus Fernandes and Charlie Taylor made an impact from the bench, while Cameron Archer is finding his feet.

Academy product Dibling is making a case for more opportunities, attempting more dribbles and duels per minute than any other Saints player.

While Martin recognises his side "needs some help" in the final third, the boss was vague about what form that comes in - a wide player or a number nine?

They look like they need a Dusan Tadic-type maverick. A player who, while the structure and organisation keeps them in games, can put another team out of it.

Nobody really felt that something special might happen in the closing stages. A curling goal from long range or a pinpoint cross to the back-post.

Are they going to be able to get that on their budget? It might be the difference. Oh, and is it time to switch the phones off to any Walker-Peters bid?