EASTLEIGH is the first constituency likely to go UKIP in the 2015 general election, according to a recent poll.

People ask ‘Why Eastleigh?

Why not a place with a much higher immigrant population?’.

Obviously Diane James’ excellent campaign in 2013 won a lot of support but the answers can also be found in national voting trends.

Firstly, towns with a lot of immigrants also have a lot of immigrant voters. A recent study showed an astonishing 80 per cent of ethnic votes go to Labour.

No wonder Blair and Brown were so keen to (quietly) let four million in.

New immigrants mainly live in poor urban areas which are historically Labour seats.

Another recent study showed that one third of voters are still “tribal”ÿ in that they will always vote for the red (or blue) rosette even if it is being worn by the proverbial lamppost.

So in a poor urban seat, Labour gets the ethnic vote which could be worth ten per cent plus the tribal vote worth around 25 per cent, making a total of 35 per cent, which is a substantial target for UKIP to attack.

Eastleigh, in contrast, never was a safe Labour seat. There still are tribal voters of a blue persuasion, but many of them discarded their loyalty 20 years ago.

We in Eastleigh can clearly see the malign impacts of the EU: n The EU using our money to close down Ford at Swaythling and move production to Turkey (not even an EU member).

n Companies in the borough recruiting labour direct from Eastern Europe.

We are not willing to see large areas of London, the Midlands, the north and even Southampton transformed beyond recognition.

Even though there is not a large immigrant presence in Eastleigh yet, we want our country back.

Richard North, Netley Abbey.